Indians are very politically indulgent and opinionated. The results for the recent assembly elections held in 5 states (including the big daddy) were highly awaited. It is delightful to see that the results have been very favorable for India’s political future. The reason being, there is something that every political party can learn from the results. I hope they do take note so that a fresh political narrative can quickly be formed.
BJP: They are obviously the biggest winners and deservedly so. The run-away victories in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand beat even their own expectations. They should however take time-out to remind themselves that the only reason they have won so comprehensively is their good work in the Centre and other BJP ruled states. A lot of credit does go to PM Modi or so to say the Modi wave which does not seem to die. It doesn’t die because it’s not just a surge of fondness for a personality, it is an expectation of development, decision making and leadership, which Modi has succeeded in personifying. Sure BJP started off on communal agenda but this party has metamorphosed into being more serious and inclusive with a broader outlook. This result should reinstate their understanding that though Ram Mandir has helped them gather votes in the 90’s, its impact is rather insignificant today. Only work counts for the new age voter. Going ahead they should try and keep away from any degree of polarization as it scarcely counts to much.
They should also not lose sight of their loss in Punjab. It goes to show that anti-incumbency will eventually catch up to anybody, no matter who is in power. The Akalis did not do a very bad job, but they sure had a few sore thumbs which they just could not heal. BJP could very well suffer a similar fate in other states as well, if they start acting callously. Look how an incumbent BJP performed well below expectations in Goa. There is no scope for relaxation in politics. The Modi brand will burn out eventually, and to be prepared for that scenario they will have to continue to work well. The Delhi throne cannot be taken for granted. If you don’t deliver, people will always manage to find one alternative or the other. Just like his poll promises, one should not take Omar Abdulla’s praises on face value too!
Congress: They would be quite happy with these results, considering they have been losing everything since 2014. They won Punjab by two-third’s majority and came out as the largest party in Goa and Manipur. No serious political observer took their UP claims seriously, however this level of decimation wasn’t expected either. Congress only got 7 seats in UP and if it wasn’t for Prashant Kishore’s move of getting them allied with SP, they would have been in graver shambles. The party however can take a lot of heart from results in Punjab. They were expected to win there but they did it handsomely. It goes to show that local leaders and issues are very important. Maybe next time you need not keep politicians such as Captain Singh waiting for too long at 10 Janpath. From Goa they can learn that they are still hanging in there as the 2nd alternative. They should not leave the spot easily for any other party given that they still have the most far-reaching and well-equipped ground-level organization. Even in Manipur they have stuck along. Maybe they can stop taking the North-East for granted and try and consolidate there to make it difficult for other parties specially BJP to build their organization.
The idea behind Congress and the support base is still there, it’s just that they need to get serious about their presentation. The party has to quickly shed its current image and change their discourse into something new. Bring in fresh, unblemished faces. The Gandhi factor has become obsolete in a fast changing India. The Gandhi’s however may not be gotten rid of as they are not a liability still. They bind the party together and are there to take most of the discredit. However, now is the right time for them to stay away from the limelight. Sadly everything starts going down just by the sight of Rahul Gandhi these days. For some time he can work in the background and let others face up. It will take a lot of patience from the Gandhi family to literally get their house in order first and then their party. Congress needs to get back the willingness to perform. They can start by shedding their ego and their snobbishness. If they can be a serious and constructive opposition, have faith and hang in there, you never know, maybe their time will come back again.
AAP: The results would have come as a rude shock to AAP who had made it a habit of punching above their weight. Their hopes of winning Punjab and venturing into Goa, giving them a leverage to eventually become a national alternative to challenge BJP have been reduced to a fantasy. It serves them right for flirting with separatists to gain power. I hope they treat this as a wake-up call, give themselves time for a few deep breaths and stop being perennial protesters. The new comer tag has expired now. All the promises they make nowadays, sound no different to people than their counterparts in BJP and Congress. To regain their differentiator they will have to work hard in Delhi and come up with tangible results to showcase in other elections. They also need to sort out their candidates. Nobody likes their elected MP to be drunk when he is in parliament. The constant scuffles with the center and name calling on Twitter have hit the law of diminishing returns too. Virat’s aggression looks good only till he is performing! The one good thing about this party is that they have shown hunger for power and some good intentions; it would be a shame if they lose out because of unforced errors.
SP, BSP: It is high time regional parties such as SP and BSP should understand that people are not just pieces on pie-charts made by political analysts. It is lot more than caste or religion that defines people. Elections are not won and lost by permutations of Muslim, Yadav or Dalit votes. People are changing, you need to catch up too. You can have the best slogans or the best campaigns just like SP, but it takes a lot more to convert crowds into votes. Akhilesh did a fair job in UP as compared to its predecessors but lost out the battle of development to Modi. If SP should set their house in order and be a responsible opposition they still have a chance in future elections. BSP however is the biggest loser along with AAP. At-least SP had anti-incumbency to deal with, but BSP, who should have gained due to it, got even lesser seats than the last assembly elections. Grace was never expected of them, but they have stooped to a new low after questioning EVM’s. I hope they come out of denial and smell the coffee. Maybe they can also hear the fat lady singing, not very far away.
I so wish political parties, psephologists and journalists acknowledge that elections today are won only due to work. The caste-centered politics does not give the same results as they used to 10-15 years back. Even in Bihar, the JDU-RJD combine won more due to the work of Nitish Kumar than the Yadav-Kurmi votes coming together. It will be wrong to say that caste is completely out of the equation yet; however it would be safe to say that all political parties would fare much better if they focus more on development than demographics. I hope all of them learn their lessons before the next elections.
The Window Seat 